Relief sweeps across Kerala as the monsoon, after a worrying August marked by low rainfall, now shows clear signs of revival. Recent downpours bring much-needed hope, easing fears of water shortages and crop damage that had gripped the state. This welcome shift in weather patterns is a critical change, offering a lifeline to farmers and preparing the region for a more stable agricultural outlook after a period of significant concern.
August Starts With Less Rain
The state of Kerala has faced a significant shortage of rain in the first part of August. Data shows that from August 1 to August 11, the region received only 75. 4 millimeters of rain. This is much less than the usual amount of 179 millimeters for this period. This sharp drop in rainfall has led to a 15 percent overall shortage of rain since the beginning of June. The month of August is usually a period of strong monsoon activity. the current low levels of rain have caused concern among many people.
Looking back, the pattern of rain in August has sometimes been quite different from year to year. In some years, August has seen very heavy rain, while in others, there has been a notable lack of it. For example, in 2020, after some very heavy rain early in August, the monsoon activity almost stopped, leading to shortages in most districts.
More Rain Expected Soon
After a period of less rain, there are now clear signs that the monsoon is getting stronger again over Kerala. Weather experts have pointed to changes in weather systems forming over the Bay of Bengal. These changes are expected to bring more rain to the state.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that a low-pressure area was expected to form around August 13, 2025. This weather system is seen as key to boosting the monsoon activity. The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall, ranging from 7 to 11 centimeters within a 24-hour period, for one or two places in Kerala from August 13 to August 15, 2025.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the conditions are set for heavy to very heavy rain in the state till June 23, aided by the presence of a cyclonic circulation over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
The monsoon activity is expected to gain strength over Kerala, albeit not an intense rainfall activity, with the change in the weather systems in the Bay of Bengal.
Impact on Daily Life
The lack of rain in August has raised worries across various parts of Kerala. One of the main concerns is the effect on the state’s agriculture. Farmers depend heavily on the monsoon for their crops. a shortage of rain can lead to lower yields and financial difficulties.
Water supplies have also been affected. Many household wells have started to dry up, causing problems for daily water needs in homes. Reservoirs that store water for drinking and for generating power are also showing lower levels. This has a direct impact on the state’s ability to produce hydroelectric power.
| Period | Normal Rainfall (mm) | Actual Rainfall (mm) | Deficit |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 1 – August 11, 2025 | 179 | 75. 4 | More than 50% |
| June 1 – August 10, 2025 (Overall) | Approximately 15% deficit for Kerala |
For example, in 2023, the deficiency in seasonal rainfall from June 1 to August 29 was as high as 48 percent. This showed how much the state depends on consistent rainfall. Such dry spells can lead to conditions similar to a heatwave, making daily life uncomfortable for residents.
What Weather Experts Say
Weather experts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) are closely watching the situation. They confirm that the monsoon activity is expected to pick up. This change is partly due to factors like the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which affects tropical weather patterns. the formation of low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal.
These experts regularly provide updates and warnings to the public and various government departments. They highlight that while the current forecast brings hope, it is essential to continue observing the weather conditions. The IMD also advises that strong winds may come with the heavy rainfall.
Strong surface winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph is likely to prevail occasionally over Kerala and Lakshadweep from 13th to 15th August 2025. Heavy rainfall (7cm to 11cm in 24 hours) is very likely to occur at one or two places in Kerala from 13th to 15th August 2025.
Looking Ahead at the Rain
The return of rainfall is a positive sign for Kerala, providing much-needed relief from the dry conditions experienced earlier in August. The expected increase in rain could help improve water levels in reservoirs and support agricultural activities that were facing challenges.
The monsoon season usually lasts until the end of September. While the recent spells of rain are welcome, the overall performance of the monsoon for the entire season will depend on continued rainfall in the coming weeks. Authorities and residents remain hopeful that the revival will continue, helping to make up for the earlier deficit and prevent more widespread impacts.
Continued monitoring by the IMD will be crucial to grasp how the weather patterns evolve. Their regular updates will help prepare for any further changes in rainfall, whether it is continued heavy rain or another period of reduced activity.
